Who Won?

Today marks the second day of the "permanent" cessation of violence in the Middle East, and already various actors are declaring Hezbollah the ultimate winners of the month-long conflict. They argue that the mere survival of Hezbollah will advance their public relations cause and give them infinitely increased recruiting potential. After all, these ragtag fundamentalists stood up to the Israeli Defense Force and refused to be wiped out like so many other Arab armies. They will be resupplied by Iran and Syria, and with all the new recruits that will come from this notoriety they can easily become much more of a headache for the West.

This is how the Arabs view the results of the past month, and that is a problem for everyone. What strategic gains did Hezbollah achieve in the past month? They got some notoriety. A lot of them got killed. They got a lot of civilians killed. And they damn sure got half of Lebanon destroyed.

What about Israel - what did that country gain? They killed a lot of the enemy and they depleted and/or destroyed a good portion of Hezbollah's weapons stockpiles. But the biggest strategic gain for the Jewish state is the internationally enforced buffer zone. Most people do not realize that Hezbollah has been firing rockets into Israeli territories on a daily basis for years, so they got to show force in addressing their enemy and gave their citizens a safety zone.

A cost/benefit analysis for both sides shows a stark contrast in favor of Israel. Yet this is considered the best an Arab force has done in standing up to Israel yet, which is amazing. Consider that no uniformed unit actually stood up to face the IDF at any point in the conflict. They used Lebanese civilians as human shields. They fired stockpiles of rockets indiscriminately into civilian populations. They managed to get their country completely decimated. And they have nothing - nothing - to show for it.

If simply surviving (albeit by utilizing cowardly tactics) is enough to be labeled a victor, then Israel is the supreme winner of the universe. They have survived for decades despite being surrounded by virulent enemies and hampered by the pesky rules of decency practiced by the West.

Unfortunately, the population of the Middle East is too anti-Semitic to see how badly Hezbollah, and indeed their society, really lost.

PS I shouldn't say that Hezbollah gained nothing. They are instruments of Iran, and I guarantee that their invading Israel had the purpose of distracting the Security Council and the world from Iran's nuclear ambitions. Is this a lead in to or distraction for something on 8/22? (read the article below)